论中国区域经济增长与能源消费的关系

A Research on Relationship between Regional Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in China

经济新常态下,资源环境约束日益凸显,能源消费在促进经济快速发展的同时也面临着能源短缺和环境污染问题。因此,研究区域能源消费与经济增长之间的关系,为区域能源战略的制定提供理论参考,具有重要的现实意义。通过聚类分析法把中国30个省级单位划分为三类区域,以研究同类区域经济增长与能源消费的共性关系。实证结果表明,经济增长与能源消费存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,但是,不同区域长短期因果关系存在差异。因此,在制定能源消费战略的时候,要考虑到不同区域经济增长与能源消费因果关系的差异性,制定出符合区域实情的能源消费战略。

Under China＇s new economic normal, the resources and environmental constraints become increasingly prominent, and energy consumption is also facing the problem of energy shortage and environmental pollution while promoting the rapid development of economy. Therefore, it is important to study the relationship between regional energy consumption and economic growth, and to provide theoretical reference for regional energy strategy. In this paper, we reclassify 30 provincial administrative units into 3 categories through cluster analysis, and study the common relationship between economy growth and energy consumption. The study shows that there exists the long stable equilibrium between economy growth and energy consumption. By comparing the relationship of economic growth and energy consumption between different regions, we find that there are differences on long-term and short-term Granger causality relationships between the three regions. Therefore, when we formulate the energy consumption strategy, we should take into account the differences of the Granger causality relationship between economy growth and energy consumption for the three regions; formulate the energy consumption strategy according with the regional actual situation.