美国液化石油气库存大幅下降引发的航运问题

Decline in US LPG stocks triggers concern for gas shipping market

新的液化石油气出口码头的出现和美国国内对液化石油气增长的需求使得液化石油气的库存量大幅降低。

New export terminals and increased domestic demand to squeeze inventories. A steep drop in LPG inventories is causing concern about the US'leading position in world export markets.The US overtook Qatar last year to become the world's leading exporter of LPG, with 21 million tonnes shipped out last year and at least another 26 million tonnes expected to be exported this year.The strength in US exports has sparked a strong build-up in gas carrier newbuildings and related onshore terminal infrastructure.The US' role as major exporter has been predicated on continued growth in supply and high inventories,which set a record last year at 8.9 million tonnes. Marketwatchers, however, see strong US supply under pressure as export slower inventories faster than expected and production cuts across the energy industry threaten to keep a lid on future production.Speaking at the CERAWeek conference in Houston, director Debnil Chowdhury said inventories of propane, the main component of LPG, have been coming down further and quicker than expected. The US started the year with 8.3 million tonnes of LPG in reserve but that has since dropped to 5.75 million tonnes. It is common for inventories tofall during winter due to heating demand. But Chowdhury says the drop has been much steeper than comparable periods overthe past two years, both of which were marked by exceptionally cold weather.Sharp drawdowns can cause price spikes, and make it less economical to ship propane overseas.The drawdown in inventories likely stems from the January opening of the expanded Enterprise Products LPG export terminal on the Houston Ship Channel.The facility is capable of shipping out some 1.2 million tonnes per month.The US is also experiencing renewed domestic demand for LPG from its petrochemical plants.New plants built by Dow Chemical Co and Enterprise are consuming some 250,000 tonnes of LPG monthly.Other export docks are also likely to take out an increasing share of US inventories. The Sunoco Logistics terminal in Marcus Hook, Pennsylvania, is expected tostart loading very large gas carrier(VLGC)-size carriers by the second quarter. Phillips 66, too, is opening a major export facility along the US Gulf Coast by the third quarter.Chowdhury says there should be enough supply to keep those terminals at high capacity in the short term. But the long-term fallout of steeper inventory drops makes it unclear if that will remain the case.Yet so far, production has shown little downward movement. According to the most recent data available, US LPG production is running at 138,800 tonnes per day,about 5% over the same time last year. IHS director Walt Hart says it is odd on the surface that US LPG production has stayed strong despite low prices. But he notes it could reflect producers continuing to drill in areas that are rich in LPG, thanks to additional by-product sales.He does, however, believe that US production will plateau by the next decade, providing less surplus to export markets.