利用台站元数据及卫星遥感资料分析影响气温序列均一性的原因

Causal Analysis of Influence on Temperature Series Homogeneity Based on Stations Metadata and Remote Sensing Data

为了减少均一性检测结果的不确定性,提高均一性检测结论的可信度,基于可靠证据探讨影响气温序列均一性的可能原因,用3种均一性检测方法对陕西77个台站月平均气温序列进行检测,同时引入台站元数据及卫星遥感影像数据对其结果进行判别,并分析影响气温序列均一性的原因。结果表明:2种及其以上方法检测出的非均一断点36个(占78%)有台站元数据支持,台站站址迁移、观测仪器变更和日平均计算方法改变造成气温序列非均一断点的百分率分别为66.7%、22.2%和11.1%。利用以气象站为中心的缓冲区内土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)的卫星遥感影像和台站元数据中的图像文件综合分析认为,台站探测环境的变化是影响潼关站气温序列均一性的重要原因。建议将卫星遥感影像作为台站元数据的补充,以便更加直观、客观地定量描述台站探测环境。

In order to reduce the uncertainty of homogeneity test results and improve the credibility of homogeneity test conclusion,the possible causes of inhomogeneous temperature time series are discussed based on reliable evidences.The monthly average temperature series of 77 stations in Shaanxi are tested by using Two-Phase Regression（TPR）,Penalized Maximal F test（PMFT）,Penalized Maximal t test（PMT）.The test results are judged based on the detailed station metadata and satellite remote sensing image data,and the causal analysis of the influence on the homogeneity temperature series is discussed.The results show that station metadata can support 78% of the detected inhomogeneous breakpoints using two methods.In addition to 66.7% of inhomogeneity caused by station migration,the replacement of equipment and calculation method change for daily average temperature are the other reasons,accounting for 22.2% and 11.1%,respectively,in the 78% of the inhomogeneous breakpoints supported by station metadata.Using the land use/cover change（LUCC）distribution image data of the phase at the different time and different buffers obtained by remote sensing（high resolution Landsat images）combined with GIS technology,the panorama view and composite diagram of the observation field,a comprehensive analysis is made of the inhomogeneous breakpoints occurred in 1993 and the 8-month average temperature at Tongguan influenced by small environment changes around the station.Finally,due to the satellite remote sensing images can fill the limitations in the aspect of station observation environmental assessment of traditional station metadata.It is suggested that satellite remote sensing images can be the supplement of stations metadata to provide a more intuitive and objective evidences for station observation environmental assessment.