中国旅游经济与新型城镇化的动态关系研究

Dynamic Relation Between Tourist Economy and New-type Urbanization in China

在旅游引导新型城镇化的背景下,通过功效函数的构建发现,旅游经济、经济城镇化;社会城镇化的综合功效水平明显领先于人口城镇化和生态城镇化。通过协调度的计算发现,旅游经济与生态城镇化间的协调度明显滞后于旅游经济与其他子系统间的协调度。运用Johansen协整检验和格兰杰因果检验可知,旅游经济与人口城镇化、经济城镇化存在正向的长期均衡关系,和生态城镇化存在负向的长期均衡关系。短期中旅游经济和人口城镇化互动关系显著。经济城镇化是推动旅游经济发展的主要动力,旅游经济分别对人口城镇化和生态城镇化产生了正向和负向的影响。最后提出旅游经济推动新型城镇化发展的相关建议。

As tourism is playing a leading role in the new-type urbanization,it can be concluded that comprehensive efficacy level and coordination degree,the comprehensive efficacy level of tourist economy,economic urbanization,and social urbanization keep ahead of urbanization of population and ecological urbanization through the establishment of efficacy function.The coordination degree of tourist economy and social urbanization were found to fall behind that of tourist economy and other subsystems based on the calculation of coordination degree.Through Johansen co-integration test and Granger causality test it can be concluded that there exists a positive long-run equilibrium relationship between tourist economy,urbanization of population,and economic urbanization and a negative long-run equilibrium relationship between tourist economy and ecological urbanization.A significant interaction is found between tourist economy and urbanization of population. Economic urbanization is the main driving force of tourist economy,and tourist economy exerts a positive effect on the urbanization of population and a negative effect on ecological urbanization. Finally,proposals are put forward to promote tourism＇s leading role in new-type urbanization.