基于SCI论文和专利数据的单项技术成熟度评估方法

Evaluation methods of individual technology maturity based on SCI-covered papers and patent data

目的:借鉴高德纳Hype Cycle等技术成熟度评估方法,尝试建立基于SCI论文和专利数据的单项技术成熟度评估方法。方法:结合传统X线摄影和光声层析成像技术成熟度的测试,对SCI论文和专利数据分别进行非线性回归分析,拟合为用于研判成熟度的钟形和S形曲线。结果:所获单项技术成熟度评估结果与专家定性评述较一致。结论:单项技术的SCI论文和专利数据,能够实现对单项技术成熟度的初步评估。

Objective To establish the evaluation methods of individual technology maturity based on SCI-covered papers and patent data using Gartner＇s Hype Cycle. Methods The SCI-covered papers and patent data were analyzed by nonlinear regression analysis in combination with traditional X- radiography and photo- acoustic tomography,and represented as the bell-shaped curve and S-shaped curve for judging the technology maturity. Results The individual technology maturity was consistent with the qualitative review of experts. Conclusion The individual technology described in SCI-covered papers and patent data can be used in primary evaluation of its maturity.