三种数值模式对长江上游面雨量预报能力的评估

Evaluation of Three Forecasting Models to Area Rainfall Prediction in Upstream of Yangtze River

利用2007—2008年长江上游逐日面雨量实况和中国T213、日本JMH、德国GER三种数值模式降水预报格点资料,采用TS评分方法,检验三种数值模式对长江上游面雨量≥20mm强降水的预报能力。检验结果显示,日本JMH模式12～36h预报评分达38.5%;中国T213模式为28.2%;德国GER模式为26.9%。并且在对降水落区进行定性评估的基础上,建立了降水预报产品与流域面雨量实况的线性回归方程。

Using the daily area rainfall of observation and three forecasting models in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River from 2007 to 2008,based on TS scoring methods,the capability is inspected of the models to heavy prediction over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.Test results show that the three models are of different precipitation forecasting capacity：the score of Japan＇s JMH Model is 38.5%;the score of China＇s T213 model is 28.2%;the score of Germany GER model is 26.9%.Based on the qualitative assessment of precipitation area,a linear regression equation is established for precipitation forecast products and the precipitation.