新常态下中国奥运方略的若干问题论析——基于传统夏季奥运参赛国竞技实力影响因素的实证

On Several Questions about China Olympic Strategies in the New Normal——An Empirical Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Competitiveness of Traditional Olympic Countries

将传统夏季奥运参赛国界定为,在现代夏季奥运会上获得过的奖牌数不小于17届的28个国家,其奥运之路或为我国新常态下奥运方略的"后事之师"。选取传统奥运参赛国8个因素的总体和近三届奥运会的数据为研究对象,采取历史的研究思路和统计学的方法相结合。通过对传统奥运参赛国的系统研究认为:奥运会竞技实力受到三大球奖牌数、基础大项奖牌数、举办奥运会次数、GDP共同构成的国家体育实力因子的积极影响显著,且在国家政治背景因素中一党执政或社会主义政体更加高效。但总体而言,国家体育实力因子比国家政治背景因素对传统奥运的参赛国竞技实力的影响更大。传统奥运参赛国经验告诉我们:奥运体制与三大球应并行不悖,奥运体育强国与三大球和基础大项等大体育时代本就融为一体,这也充分证明了新常态下学校体育与竞技体育的耦合,且更加明确了奥运方略若干内容与发展方向。

The traditional Olympic countries（ TOC） are the 28 countries that have won medals at no less than 17 Summer Olympic Games. These countries may serve as teachers of China in terms of its Olympic strategies in the new normal. In the present study,I selected as the research object eight factors of the TOCs from all the Olympic Games that they have participated and the most recent three Games. The study was conducted from a historical perspective and using the statistical method.It found that factors affecting Olympic competitiveness are medals in the three＂big balls＂（ i. e.,basketball,volleyball and football）,basic sports（ i. e.,athletics and swimming）,times of hosting the Olympic Games and the GDP,all of which reflect the competitiveness of a nation＇s sports. Though a one-party state or a socialist country is more efficient in this regard,the competitive ability of a nation still plays a bigger role. The experiences of the TOCs suggest that the three major ball games and the Chinese Olympic system should develop in parallel and that an Olympic competitive nation is one that is strong in the three＂big balls＂and basic sports. This supports the coupling of school PE and competitive sports in the new normal and clarifies some of the contents and the direction of development of China＇s general plan for the Olympics.