基于GM(1,1)模型的国际旅游目的地开发研究——以宁夏回族自治区为例

Research on development strategy of international tourism destination based on the GM(1,1)model——A case study of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

旅游目的地是经济发展的重要空间载体,其旅游开发战略直接影响地域经济发展,"一路一带"经济背景下宁夏回族自治区成为重要的国际旅游目的地.以宁夏回族自治区1997-2011年入境游客量和外汇收入为原始数据,构建GM(1,1)灰色预测动态模型,并进行模型精度检验,模型预测的2012年结果与实际数据基本一致,并利用该模型对宁夏2013—2020年入境旅游指标进行预测.基于预测结果结合旅游目的地现状,提出宁夏入境旅游借申遗成功之"鲶鱼"推跨国旅游精品,现丝绸之路经济带旅游发展"鲶鱼效应";以规划引领旅游发展,通过整合挖掘盘活宁夏"羡余"旅游资源;跨界促成"第六产业"谋求"全域旅游"等可持续开发对策.

Tourism destination is an important spatial carrier of economy development,and its tourism development strategy can directly affect regional economic development.On the background of One Belt and One Road,NingXia Hui Autonomous Region becomes an important international tourism destination.Based on relevant inbound tourism statistics of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region from1997 to 2011,this paper constructs GM（1,1）gray predictive dynamic model and has an accuracy test.Analyzing the predicted value,it shows that model prediction value is basically identical with actual data.Furthermore,the inbound tourism index of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region for the next years from 2013 to 2020are predicted.Based on the predicted results and the present situation of tourism destination,this paper presents some sustainable development countermeasures of inbound tourism destination of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,which are as the follow：making the most of the opportunity of the ancient Silk Road given World Heritage Site status,lauching high-quality international tourism products to promote the catfish effect in tourism development of Silk Road economic belt,planing to lead the development of tourism,digging and interating to liquidize redundancy resources,crossovering to promote integration tourism.