企业短期业绩预期对盈余管理的影响分析——基于中国A股市场的经验证据

The Effect of Short-Term Earnings Forecasts on Earnings Management:Evidence from Chinese A-Share Stock Markets

盈余管理问题一直是资本市场研究的热点问题之一。以我国A股市场2010—2014年上市公司为研究样本,采取倾向评分匹配法控制企业样本,从上市公司非正常收益模型和随意收入模型两种方法量化盈余管理,构建上市公司盈余管理与短期业绩预期之间相互关系的线性回归模型,分析上市公司发布短期业绩预期是否引起企业为了追求短期盈利目标而导致盈余管理的增加。研究表明,企业对短期业绩的预期不会导致企业为了过度追求短期效益目标而增加盈余管理,只会相对减少企业应用盈余管理。

Earnings management has always been a hot topic in the research of capital market. Based on the data collected from Chinese A-share stock markets from 2000 to 2014,the paper analyzes Chinese listed companies＇ quarter forecasts by adopting propensity-score matched method to control the samples of companies,the abnormal accruals model and the discretionary revenues model to measure companies＇ earnings management,and finally the regress model to investigate the relationship between short-term earnings forecasts and earnings management to see whether the companies＇ earnings forecasts will lead to the increase of their earnings management. The result shows that earnings forecasts do not cause the companies to increase earnings management for the sake of short-term earnings target,but to decrease it.