基于LMDI模型的城镇化演进对资源环境压力影响前景预测及分析——以安徽省为例

Prospect Forecast and Analysis of Effects of Urbanization Evolution Based on LMDI Model on Resource Environment Pressure:An Empirical Analysis of Anhui Province

探索城镇化演进对资源环境压力影响前景,对指导城镇化与资源环境保护协同演进的政策制定具有借鉴意义.以安徽省为例,选取15项资源消耗与污染物排放指标,采用熵值赋权法,对经济社会快速发展背景下资源环境压力状况进行了探索;运用LMDI分解模型,测算了城镇化进程对资源环境压力贡献份额;借助SPSS数理分析软件,采用曲线回归最佳拟合优度分析方法,构造了城镇化与其引致资源环境压力耦合函数关系式;运用Logistic模型,对2020年、2030年城镇化演进趋势进行了预测;依据城镇化与资源环境压力耦合关系及城镇化水平预测值,估算了城镇化演进对资源环境压力影响前景.结果表明:1城镇化进程引致的资源环境压力指数由2001年的0.004 222增加至2013年的0.038 479,其增幅明显高于城镇化水平升幅;2城镇化与资源环境压力间契合S型函数关系;3中性预测2020年、2030年城镇化水平分别达57.96%、68.23%;42020年、2030年城镇化发展对资源环境压力指数将分别升至0.047 788、0.075 531,基于研究结果,就新常态背景下如何推进城镇化绿色、循环、低碳发展提出了政策建议.

Exploring the prospect of the effect of urbanization evolution on the pressure of resources and environment has referential significance to guide the policy formulation of the urbanization and coordinated evolution of resources and environment protection. Take Anhui province as an example, 15 items of resource consumption and pollutant emissions targets were selected, and resource environment pressure was explored under the background of the rapid development of economy and society by using entropy weight assignment method. The LMDI decomposition model was employed to estimate the contribution share of urbanization process on pressure of resources and environment. With the help of SPSS mathematical analysis software, the analysis method of the optimal goodness of fit for curve regression was used to construct the coupling function equation of the urbanization and the caused pressure of resources and environment. By using the Logistic model, the urbanization evolution trend of 2020 and 2030 was predicted. According to the coupling relationship of the urbanization and the pressure of resources and environment and the prediction values of urbanization levels, the prospect of the effects of the evolution of urbanization on pressure of resources and environment was estimated. The results showed that： ① the pressure index of resources and environment caused by urbanization process increased from 0.004 222 in 2001 to 0.038 479 in 2013, the increase of which was significantly higher than those of urbanization levels; ② the urbanization and the pressure of resources and environment satiefied the S type function relationship; ③ the neutrally predicted levels of urbanization in 2020 and 2030 reached 57.96% and 68.23%, respectively;④ the resource environment pressure index caused by urbanization development in 2020 and 2030 would increase to 0.047 788 and 0.075 531. Based on the research results, policy recommendations are put forward on how to promote urban green, recycling, low carbon development under the new normal background.