基于PSR模型的安徽省土地生态安全动态评价

Dynamic Evaluation of Land Ecological Security in Anhui Province Based on PSR Model

基于PSR框架模型,构建安徽省16个地市土地生态安全评价指标体系,运用熵权法确定各指标权重,计算出安徽省2000—2011年土地生态子系统安全值,并运用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型对安徽省2012—2017年土地生态子系统趋势进行预测。结果表明,安徽省2000—2017年土地生态安全值整体呈波动上升趋势,各地市土地生态安全水平差异明显,平均值由2000年的0.442上升到2017年的0.450,同时,安徽省土地生态安全各子系统中状态指数和响应指数上升;灰色预测GM(1,1)模型有较高的模拟精度,能够较好地预测2012—2017年安徽省土地生态安全等级及其各子系统的发展趋势;影响安徽省土地生态安全的主要因素有人均耕地面积、人口密度、人口自然增长率、城镇化水平、水土协调度、农业机械化水平、自然保护区面积比重等,是今后调控的重点。

Based on PSR framework method, the land ecological security evaluation index system of 16 cities of Anhui province was constructed. The land ecological security value of subsystem in Anhui province from 2000 to 2011 was calculated using the index weight which was determined by the entropy weight method, and land ecological security trend from 2012 to 2017 was forecasted using grey prediction GM（1,1） model. The results indicate that, the land ecological security index in Anhui province from 2000 to 2017 was rising on the whole, with the average value increasing from 0.442 in 2000 to 0.450 in 2017, and there was a huge difference among cities; at the same time, the state index and response index of each subsystem of land ecological security also rose. GM（1,1） model had high simulation precision and was able to predict the land ecological security level and the development trend of each subsystem of Anhui province from 2012 to 2017. The main factors that influence the land ecological security of Anhui province included the farmland areas per person, population density, natural growth rate of population, urbanization level, soil coordination degree, agricultural mechanization degree, and the proportion of nature reserves, which are the focus of land ecological security regulation in the future.