我国碳排放权市场交易价格波动特征研究

Study on the Characteristics of the Price Fluctuation of China's Carbon Emission Market

碳排放权交易市场的平稳运行将成为我国节能减排战略顺利推进的重要抓手和关键突破点。在R/S非参数分析法的基础上构建了我国碳排放权市场交易价格非线性特征检验模型,对我国五大试点碳交易价格波动特征进行了实证检验与分析。结果表明:交易价格存在明显的非线性特征和状态持续性,各个试点市场存在不同程度的交易风险,交易价格时间序列并不存在周期性循环,综合来看我国碳排放权交易市场尚未达到有效状态。最后在实证结果的基础上对科学引导我国碳交易市场健康稳定发展提出了政策建议。

The smooth running of carbon emissions trading market will become the smooth promotion of China＇s energy-saving emission reduction strategy and key breakthrough point. Based on the R/S non parametric analysis method, this article builds a test model for carbon emissions trading price in China, and takes empirical test and analysis on the characteristics of the price volatility of the five pilot carbon trading in China. The results show that there are obvious nonlinear characteristics and continuity of the trading price, there are different levels of trading risk in each pilot market, and there is no periodic cycle in the time series of transaction price. Finally, based on the empirical results, this article puts forward policy suggestions on the healthy and stable development of China＇s carbon trading market.