粮食价格非对称性传导——基于阈值非对称误差修正模型的实证研究

Asymmetry Transmission of Grain Price——Based on the Empirical Research of Threshold Asymmetric Error Correction Model

选取大米、小麦、大豆和玉米这4个主要粮食品种,利用近十年国际、国内相关的价格数据,考察国际市场对我国粮食价格的传导机制及传导的非对称性问题。通过协整检验和阈值非对称误差修正模型,发现小麦和大米的国际、国内价格之间不具有联动性,而玉米和大豆之间存在,并且玉米和大豆存在价格传导的非对称性,表现出国际价格向国内价格的单向传导。为确保我国粮食安全,稳定国内粮食价格,应继续利用国际市场,合理制定进出口计划,平抑国内农产品价格波动,同时探索建立全球大宗商品交易中心,提高我国粮食的市场竞争力和定价权。

By selecting the main four grain varieties of rice, wheat, soybean and corn, this article studies the transmission mechanism from international market on China＇s grain price and the asymmetric problem by using foreign and domestic related data in the last decade. From co-integration test and threshold asymmetric error correction model, the paper finds that the international and domestic prices of wheat and rice have not co-movement, which exists in corn and soybean, and there is asymmetry in price transmission of corn and soybean, showing that the international price has a single-tracking transmission towards domestic price. In order to guarantee China＇s food security and stabilize the domestic grain price, we should continue to use international market, rationally make import and export plan, stabilize the domestic agricultural price fluctuation, and establish global bulk commodity trade center to enhance our market competitiveness and pricing right