湖北省蔬菜价格波动研究

Research on Vegetable Price Fluctuation in Hubei Province

利用X-12-ARIMA季节调整模型及H-P滤波分解对湖北省2000—2011年的5种大宗蔬菜白菜、黄瓜、茄子、青辣椒、马铃薯的价格进行分析,得到其随机性波动在每年都有不同程度的变化,不同蔬菜的季节性波动趋势分别呈现"M"或"V"字趋势,在五种蔬菜的总体趋势呈现的不同速度上,对于上升趋势的周期性变化可以分解为6个阶段。建议从蔬菜基础设施和技术装备的抗灾抗害能力,优化种植结构与市场体系,加大蔬菜种植业投入等方面着手,对蔬菜价格进行合理调控。

Applying X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment model and H-P filter decomposition to analyze the price change of five staple vegetables, which is cabbage, cucumber, eggplant, green pepper and potato, between 2001 and 2011 in Hubei.We found that the random fluctuations change in different levels each year. Seasonal fluctuation tendency for different vegetables appear as M or V. But these five types of vegetables rise in different speed as a whole, and the rising trend could be divided into six phases. Suggestions and solutions are given in the end ： improve the ability to resist hazard of vegetable infrastructure and technology equipment; improve plantation configuration and market system; increase investment on vegetable plantation; promote adjusting and controlling vegetable prices reasonably.