新疆农业生产碳排放变化特征及其净碳排放压力研究

Studies of agricultural production carbon emissions' variation characteristics and net carbon emissions pressure in Xinjiang

对新疆1996—2013年农业生产5大碳源碳排放及种植业碳汇进行测算,从时间、空间、结构3方面分析其农业生产碳排放变化特征;在农业净碳排放的基础上,构建净碳排放压力指数模型,分析新疆农业生产净碳排放压力变动趋势。研究表明,新疆农业生产碳排放在总量上呈"上升—下降—上升"趋势,碳排放强度总体上保持下降;在区域上表现出明显的差异性,喀什地区碳排放量最高,是克拉玛依市的72倍;从结构特征看,牲畜养殖、农用物资、农业活动占碳排放源的96%以上。牲畜碳排放量呈下降趋势,农业活动、农用物资碳排放呈明显增长趋势。碳汇总量增加较为迅速,农业生产净碳排放量整体保持下降趋势。净碳排放量大致分为"持平—下降"两个阶段变化特征。由净碳排放压力指数看出,新疆农业碳排放压力呈逐年递减状态。由此可知,要根据新疆实际合理适时调整优化农业产业结构,加快推进农业绿色化现代化;宏观布局,制定差异化的农业发展路线;加强农村地区的生态环境建设,提高农业生产资料的回收利用强度。

The agricultural production carbon emissions and sequestration in Xinjiang from 1996 to 2013 were calculated,and then the characteristics of its carbon emissions from the aspects of time,space and structure were analyzed in this paper. On the basis of net carbon emissions,carbon emissions pressure index model was constructed to analyze the change tendency of net carbon emissions pressure in Xinjiang. The results showed that the total carbon emission tendency in Xinjiang was showed as ＂up-down-up＂,and the carbon emission intensity was generally declined.There was obvious difference in carbon emission in different regions,and the highest carbon emission was observed in Keshi,which was 72 times of that in Karamay. From the structure characteristics,livestock farming,agricultural materials and agricultural activities accounted for more than 96% of carbon emissions. The carbon emissions of livestock showed a downward tendency,while carbon emissions of agricultural activities,agricultural materials showed a significantly increasing tendency. The total amount of carbon sinks increased rapidly,and the net carbon emissions of agricultural production was maintained a downward tendency. Net carbon emissions could be divided into two stages of＂flat-declining＂. From the net carbon emissions pressure index,the net agricultural carbon emissions pressure wasdecreased year by year. It was indicated that the agricultural industry structure in Xinjiang should be adjusted reasonably and timely according to the actual condition,and the agricultural modernization should be accelerated. The differentiated agricultural development route should be developed from the macro layout point of view. The ecological environment construction in rural areas should be strengthened,and the recycling intensity of agricultural production materials were improved.