1940-2013年陇东黄土塬区极端气温变化特征及趋势

The Features and Trends about Extreme Temperature Changes in Longdong Loess Plateau Area from 1940 to 2013

基于1940-2013年的气温数据,应用气候倾向率法、M-K突变法、累计距平法和R/S法对陇东黄土塬区的极端气温变化进行了研究。结论如下:11940-2012年陇东黄土塬区1940s最暖,1950s最冷。2平均气温(0.14℃/10a)经历了下降(1940-1964)—平稳(1964-1984)—上升(1985-2013)三个阶段的变化;极端最高气温(-0.15℃/10a)经历了下降(1940-1984)—上升(1984-2013)两阶段的变化;极端最低气温(0.51℃/10a)经历了平稳阶段(1940-1975)—显著升高(1976-2012)阶段的变化。3除春、夏季极端最高气温下降外,3个气温指标其他各季节均为升温趋势,其中极端最低气温升温最为显著。4黄土塬区1940-2012年平均气温两次突变点为1949和1994年;年极端最高气温无明显突变,年极端最低气温突变点在1993年。5未来极端最低气温、平均气温仍将显著升高,而极端最高气温仍升温较小。

Applying methods including the climate trend rate,Mann-Kendal mutagenesis test,the cumulative anomaly method,and R / S method to the study,this paper reviews the temperature data of Longdong Loess Plateau Area from 1940 to 2013 and analyzes the extreme temperature changes of the area.The main results are as follows： 1） The warmest period of Longdong Loess Plateau Area was in 1940 s and the coldest was in 1950 s. 2） The average temperature（ 0. 14 ℃ /10a） experienced three-stage changes：from declining（ 1940- 1964） to stability（ 1964- 1984） and then to rising（ 1985- 2013）; the extreme maximum temperature（- 0. 15 ℃ /10a） changed from declining（ 1940- 1984） to rising（ 1984- 2013）;and the extreme minimum temperature（ 0. 51 ℃ /10a） turned from stability（ 1940- 1975） to significantly rising（ 1976- 2012）. 3） Except that the extreme maximum temperatures dropped in springs and summers,the seasonal temperature indicators increased in the other two seasons and the extreme minimum temperature rose significantly. 4） The average temperature of the area showed two mutation points in 1949 and 1994. The highest temperature had no significant mutation and the extreme minimum temperature mutation existed in 1993. 5） The extreme minimum temperature and the average temperature will significantly rise,while the extreme maximum temperature will slightly rise in the future.