基于FTA的快速公交系统运营风险研究

Study on Operational Risk of Bus Rapid Transit Based on FTA

近年来,快速公交系统的建设速度及数量逐年递增,为使其运营达到预期目标,需要找出导致运营失败的关键因素。采用故障树分析方法,根据快速公交系统的特点,建立快速公交系统运营风险因素模型,通过求解底事件的结构重要度,确定各因素对运营失败的影响程度,提出相应的控制措施。结果可为其他准备建设快速公交系统的城市提供借鉴,对项目的成功运营具有一定指导意义。

The construction speed and quantity of BRT increased in recent years. It was necessary to find the key factors causing the failure of operation to make sure the operation target of BRT would be achieved. According to the traits of BRT, the model of operational risk factors of BRT was built by fault tree analysis method. The factors＇ degree affecting the failure of operation was confirmed to solve the events＇ structural importance of fault tree. And corresponding control measures were proposed. The results could provide guidance for other cities which would introduce BRT. It also had some guiding significance for the successful operation.