煤炭产业集中度对经济绩效影响的实证研究

Empirical Research of the Impacts of Coal Industrial Concentration on Economic Performance

为进一步深入研究煤炭产业集中度对经济绩效的影响,针对以往研究方法的不足,通过计算1985—2012年中国煤炭产业集中度,采用ADF检验、协整检验、Granger因果检验和误差修正模型实证检验了煤炭产业集中度与经济绩效之间的关系。研究发现:煤炭产业集中度是经济绩效的单向Granger原因,在长期对经济绩效存在显著正向影响,在短期对于经济绩效的影响较弱。为改善煤炭产业的经济绩效,可以从培养煤炭行业龙头企业、鼓励煤炭企业兼并重组以及控制煤炭产量、提升煤炭企业平均规模等方面着手。

Aiming at the shortcomings of the previous research methods, in order to study the effect of thecoal industrial concentration on economic performance, this article, through calculating concentration ofChina's coal industry from 1985 to 2012, using ADF test, co-integration test, Granger causality test anderror correction model empirically tests the relationship between the coal industrial concentration andeconomic performance. The study finds that the coal industry concentration is a one-way Granger cause ofeconomic performance and in the long run it has an active influence on the significant economicperformanceand less influence on the economic performance in the short term. Thus, in order to improvethe economic performance of the coal industry, we can take measures including cultivating the leadingenterprises of the coal industry, encouraging the merger and acquisition of coal enterprises, as well ascontrolling the production of coal and improving the average size of the coal enterprises.