国际金融危机冲击与中国宏观政策反应效果研究——基于开放经济DSGE-VAR模型

An Empirical Study on the Effects of International Financial Crisis Shocks and China's Macroeconomic Policies' Responses

利用一个开放经济DSGE-VAR模型模拟和测算了国际金融危机对中国经济的影响效果及其传递渠道,以及美国量化宽松货币政策对中国经济的溢出效应;并在此框架下讨论了中国货币政策和财政政策反应的效果,识别了导致中国经济波动的长期因素。研究结果表明,第一,汇率渠道和贸易渠道是国际金融危机对中国产生影响的主要渠道,美国量化宽松货币政策对中国经济具有明显的负面效应。第二,中国政府应对国际金融危机所采取的货币政策和财政政策操作是及时有效的,虽然副作用也很大;如果没有这些刺激政策,中国的真实产出在2009年将下降5个百分点,出口也将大幅下降。第三,消费偏好冲击、投资冲击、进口价格指数冲击、利率冲击和国外经济波动冲击是引起中国宏观经济波动的主要原因。

This paper simulates and measures the effects of international financial crisis on China^s economy by exploiting a small open DSGE-VAR model, under which the responses of China＇s monetary and fiscal policies and the determinants of China＇s business cycle in the long run are also examined. The results indicate that the channels of exchange rate and foreign trade are the main transmission mechanisms of financial crises on China＇s economy; FED＇s quantity ease monetary policy has adverse impact on China＇ s economy; The stimulate package of China＇s government is efficient in tackling the spillover of the global financial crisis; the preference shocks, investment shocks, interest rate shocks and the external shocks from foreign countries by financial crises contribute more to the fluctuations of China＇s economy.