1996-2013年我国幼儿园学费影响因素的实证分析

Analysis of Influence Factors on Chinese Kindergarten Tuition from 1996 to 2013

近年来，我国学前教育仍然普遍存在“入园贵”的难题。基于1996～2013年国家公布的相关数据，本研究通过单因素分析确证我国幼儿园学费主要受人均GDP、学前教育生均成本、城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入、农村居民家庭人均纯收入、学前教育需求、学前教育供给等因素的影响。以逐步回归法构建的我国幼儿园学费与上述主要影响因素的多元曲线回归模型则进一步证实我国学前教育供给与需求仍然没有达到均衡状态，需求数在供给数的两倍以上；城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入近年虽有显著提高，但其增长幅度赶不上幼儿园学费的上涨幅度，说明城镇居民家庭的学前教育负担仍比较沉重；幼儿园学费在农村居民家庭人均纯收入中占比仍然很高，说明农村特别是其偏远地区家庭的学前教育负担依然较重；幼儿园学费与人均GDP、学前教育生均成本、学前教育需求、学前教育供给之间存在正相关关系，与城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入、农村居民家庭人均纯收入之间存在负相关关系。总体来看，多元回归曲线拟合程度较好，可以根据由此产生的回归模型确定幼儿园学费标准，以保证幼儿园学费定价更加科学合理。就目前我国幼儿园收费来说，为有效缓解“入园贵”的难题，政府应继续努力增加幼儿园学位，加大对农村地区的学前教育投入，合理进行学前教育事业性预算支出，并积极利用幼儿园学费多元曲线回归模型完善当前幼儿园学费定价机制。

In recent years, kindergarten tuition in China is still very high. Based on the data published by the government from 1996 to 2013, the single factor analysis done by the researchers found that the tuition has strong correlated respectively with these influencing factors： ,real GDP per capita, preschool education cost, per capita disposable income of urban households, per capita net income of rural households, preschool education requirements and preschool education supply. The multivariate curve regression model of preschool education tuition and its influencing factors built by the authors finally showed that： first, supply and demand of preschool education has not yet reach equilibrium state at present, and the number of demand was more than twice that of supply; second, per capita disposable income of urban households has increased significantly in recent years, but the income growth can＇t keep up with the rise of kindergarten tuition, which means that urban residents＇ childcare burden is still relatively heavy; third, the tuition has still accounted high in the per capita net income of rural households, which means that rural children families especially in remote areas remain in relatively heavy burden; forth, kindergarten tuition has significant positive correlation with real GDP per capita, preschool education cost and preschool education requirements and supply, while it has significant negative correlation with per capita net income of rural households and per capita disposable income of urban households. Because the fitting degree between the influencing factors and the multiple regression curve of preschool education tuition is good, it＇s feasible to set up a kind of preschool education tuition standard according to the formula, which is helpful to make the tuition pricing system more scientific and reasonable. In the future, Chinese government should continually increase the number of national preschool education supply, add investment on preschool education especially in rural areas, do reasonably, and improve the pricing mechanisms multivariate curve regression model. non-profit-making quality budgetary expenditures of tuition in preschool education by using the