基于乘客出行价值效用函数的P&R规模预测

Scale forecast of P&R based on passengers' trip utility function

为解决北京停车换乘(Park and Ride,P&R)设施建设规模难以确定的问题,建立了P&R规模预测模型.首先从乘客出行方式的价值效用函数出发,探讨P&R吸引范围;其次根据核密度函数原理分析P&R乘客的出行意愿,得到P&R吸引强度的分布函数;然后结合北京人口分布函数,参照出行量生成模型G-MS,探讨P&R吸引人口的函数模型及规模预测函数;最后以西二旗P&R为实例,验证预测规模并得出结论:距离P&R停车场2km到5.5km的乘客约占P&R使用者的50%,西二旗P&R合理规模为488个停车位,与实际规划相差不大,同时该理论模型对北京市其他轨道交通站点的P&R规模预测具有一定的指导意义.

In order to solve the problem of the construction scale of Park and Ride（P＆R） in Beijing, the P＆R scale prediction model was established. First of all, on the basis of passengers＇ trip utility function, the model explored the P＆R attracting area. Then, according to the principle of kernel density function,the travel intention of P＆R users were, P＆R attraction intensity distribution function analyzed and was obtained. In addition, with reference to the G--MS model of user trip generation and population distribution, the P＆R attracting function model and the prediction formula were put forward. Finally, the paper used P＆R located in Xi＇erqi subway station as an example to verify the scale prediction. The conclusions show that passengers who are 2 -5.5 km away from the P＆R parking lot make up nearly half of the total P＆R users and the reasonable scale of Xi＇erqi P＆R is identified as 488 parking spaces which is close to practical planning scale. This theoretical model is helpful to forecast other P＆R scale prediction in Beijing.