基于改进灰色模型的ATS测试仪器校准周期确定

Determination of calibration interval for ATS test instruments based on the improved grey model

针对自动测试系统ATS中测试仪器校准周期的确定问题,提出了改进的灰色GM(1,1)模型预测方法。首先从GM(1,1)模型出发对模型本身进行改进,然后建立等维新息模型,并确定其最佳维数,递补动态更新预测信息,为进一步提高预测精度,提出了残差修正预测模型,并引入马尔可夫过程解决其修正残差的符号问题。实例结果表明,改进的模型预测方法比单独的模型预测具有更高的精度,可以应用于测试仪器校准周期的预测过程。

To solve the determination problem of calibration interval for test instruments in Automatic Test System,we present an improved grey GM（1,1）model forecasting method.First we improve the model itself based on GM（1,1）model,and then build a best equal-dimension and new-information grey model which can realize the best dynamic prediction of original data.In order to further improve the prediction accuracy,we propose a residual error correction model,and Markov process is applied to deal with the symbol problem of residual error correction.Real cases show that the improved model forecasting method has better prediction accuracy and can be applied to the prediction process of calibration interval.