中国区域发电量与碳排放的实证检验

An Empirical Test of Regional Electricity and Carbon Emissions In China

将全国划分为高、中、低发电量三个区域,分别对这三个区域的发电量与二氧化碳排放量进行面板数据的单位根检验、协整检验,并建立误差修正模型。研究结果表明:各地区发电量与二氧化碳排放之间存在长期均衡关系,其中,高发电量地区的碳排放对发电量的弹性系数最低。短期中,全国整体和高发电量地区碳排放与发电量之间互为因果关系,中发电量地区存在碳排放到发电量的单向因果关系,而低发电量地区只存在发电量到碳排放的单向因果关系。说明短期碳排放与发电量的区域相关性存在显著差异,不同区域采取不同的节能减排政策才能做到能源与经济的协调发展。

From the perspective of the whole, high, medium and low power areas which divided by the generating capacity,this paper maded unit root test, cointegration test and established error correction model on power generation and emissions of carbon dioxide in china.The result shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between electricity and carbon dioxide emissions in the regions all over the country. Among them, the lowest elasticity coefficient from carbon emissions to electricity is high power area. In the short term, the whole and high capacity areas have an causal relationship. But in the medium power areas, there is only a one-way causal relationship from carbon to generating capacity on the contrary of low power areas. From the short term,there is significant differences in regional correlation, different area must take different policies about energy conservation and emissions reduction to energy and economy coordinated development.