利率调控与经济增长——基于世界158个国家或地区数据的经验分析

Interest Rate Regulation and Economic Growth——Based on the Empirical Analysis of the 158 Countries' or Regions' Data in the World

在当前经济新常态的宏观背景下,基础利率调控直接关系到实体经济的发展,中国政府以"宽松货币支撑经济"政策意图相对清晰。为了探究利率调控和国民产出的关系,文章基于1990-2013年158个国家或地区的国际面板数据,利用二步系统广义矩进行动态非平衡面板模型估计,从货币需求视角实证分析利率调控对经济增长影响。主要结论:传统的劳动力因素和资本存量仍然对经济增长发挥重大作用;缩减私人信贷占比,提高进出口贸易占比也是有利于经济增长,且经济增长具有趋势性和粘滞性;若经济趋势向下,可以通过利率调控来应对,下调存贷款利率,会促使货币需求更加旺盛,最终使得产出更加,促使经济向好。经济增长对存贷利差变化不敏感,对贷款利率的变动较为敏感,且存贷款利率具有滞后性特征。总之,正确地选择和应用以利率为基础的货币政策,对于宏观经济的发展具有重要意义。

In the new normal macroeconomic background,the basic interest rate adjustment and control is directly related to the development of the real economy,the Chinese government＇s ＂loose monetary support economic＂policy intent is relatively clear. In order to explore the relationship between interest rate regulation and national output,based on the international panel data of the 158 countries or Regions＇ in 1990- 2013,using the two step system generalized moment to estimate the dynamical unbalanced panel model,from the perspective of money demand,this paper made an empirical analysis about the impact of interest rate adjustment on economic growth. The main conclusions： traditional labour force and capital stock on economic growth still play a major role; reduced private credit accounted for ratio,improve the import and export trade accounted for is conducive to economic growth,and economic growth has a trend and viscosity; if economic trends downward,through the interest rate regulation to deal with,cut deposit and lending rates,urge the currency demand more exuberant,ultimately makes better output,promote economic upturn. Economic growth is not sensitive to the change between deposit and loan interest spreads,sensitive to the changes of loan interest rates,and the loan interest rates has hysteresis characteristics. In short,the correct choice and application of monetary policy based on interest rate has important significance for the development of macro economy.