我国影子银行发展与银行体系稳定——来自省际面板数据的证据

Shadow Banking Development and Banking System Stability in China——Evidence from the Provincial Panel Data

本文基于金融与经济的基本关系原理对我国各省份的影子银行规模进行测度,从理论和实证两个层面分析影子银行对银行体系稳定性的影响,并且考察了我国影子银行的总体承受能力以及各地区承受能力的差异。研究结果表明:近年来我国影子银行发展迅猛,但不同区域的规模差异明显,其中东部地区影子银行规模最大,影子银行规模与银行体系稳定性之间呈现倒"U"型关系,存在显著的阈值效应;我国东部地区对影子银行的承受能力最强,中部地区次之,西部地区的承受能力最差。本文的研究为我国在经济新常态下合理把控影子银行规模提供了有益参考。

This paper measures the provincial shadow banking in China based on the basic relationship between finance and e- conomics, and analyzes the influence of shadow banking on the banking system stability theoretically and empirically. Further- more, we investigate the overall capacity of shadow banking in China and the capacity differences between different provinces. Results show that China＇s shadow banking has experienced a rapid development in recent years, however, it exhibits obvious regional difference, among which the eastern provinces have the largest shadow banking size. In addition, the shadow banking size appears an inverted U - shaped relationship with the banking system stability, which exhibits a significant threshold effect. Moreover, the eastern provinces have the largest shadow banking capacity, followed by central regions and then western re- gions. Our findings provide beneficial reference for the reasonable control of the shadow banking development under the ＂New Normal＂.