制造业低碳化导向的供给侧改革研究

Research on the Supply- Side Reform of Low- Carbon Oriented Manufacturing

产业结构调整是供给侧改革的题中之义,也是影响碳排放的重要因素。本文首先提出产业过度发展比不足发展更有利于降低碳强度的研究假说,并利用改进的失衡度法、IPCC参考方法、固定效应模型验证了该假说的存在,得到两个主要结论。第一,我国制造业失衡度变动呈现出周期性倒V型并逐渐收敛的趋势;制造业的碳排放可分为两个阶段,即2001—2007年碳排放稳步上升,2007—2013年碳排放先降后升。第二,我国制造业的失衡水平对碳强度产生反向影响,制造业产业结构合理化能够推动碳减排;在低碳化路径的失衡状态调整中,落后产业过度发展,而创新产业发展不足。因此,在供给侧改革中,应推进制造业低碳化转型,促进创新产业发展,控制落后产业发展。

Industrial structure adjustment is not only the core of supply - side reform, but an essential factor in the impact of carbon emissions. This paper proposed the hypothesis that industrial overdevelopment has more advantages to help to reduce carbon intensity than underdevelopment, and then used the improved method of the imbalance measurement, IPCC reference method, the fixed effects model to verify the existence of the hypothesis. And finally two main conclusions have been abtained. Firstly, the degree of change in the manufacturing sector showing a cyclical imbalance with inverted V - shape which has a ten- dency to converge; Manufacturing carbon emissions can be divided into two stages, namely, a steady increase in carbon emis- sions from 2001 to 2007, and carbon emissions first fall then rise from 2007 to 2013. Secondly, Imbalance level of manufactur- ing has a reverse impact on carbon intensity and the rationalization of manufacturing industrial structure can promote carbon e- mission reduction; In the adjustment of the imbalanced low- carbon development process, the outdated industries are in over- development, but the innovation industry is exactly on the contrary. Thus, we should promote the manufacturing of low - carbon transformation, promote the development of innovation industry, and control the over- development of outdated industry in course of supply - side reform.