“省直管县”财政体制改革对县域经济影响的多维测度——以山西省为例

An Evaluation the Economic Influence of Financial System Reform on the Economy of Province-Managing County——A Case Study of Shanxi Province

笔者以山西省为研究对象,通过典型指标统计描述、县域经济活力指数分析、双重差分模型定量测度3种方法,对始于2007年的"省直管县"财政体制改革的经济影响进行多维测度。研究发现,考察期内试点县主要社会经济指标的平均增幅普遍高于非试点县,但试点县虚拟变量对主要经济指标变化的影响未通过显著性检验;试点县县域经济活力有所增强,但试点县虚拟变量对经济活力指数的影响未通过显著性检验;双重差分模型分析发现"省直管县"显著改善了试点县的财政收支状况,但对试点县经济增长的直接促进作用仍不明显。多维测度结果均表明,当前"省直管县"财政体制改革对山西省试点县县域经济增长的影响还不显著,制度设计有待进一步完善。

Using qualitative and quantitative method based on typical economic indexes analysis,multi-objective assessment of county economic vitality index and a difference-in-difference model,this paper evaluates the economic effects of province-managing county fiscal reform on county level economic growth in Shanxi Province. The results show that： the average growth rates of the main economic indicators of pilot counties are generally higher than the non-pilot counties,but the impacts of the reform virtual variable on the main economic indicators of the pilot counties has not passed the significant test. The economic vitality of the pilot counties has been enhanced,but the impact of the reform virtual variable on the economic vitality index of the pilot counties has not passed the significant test. The difference-in-difference model analysis found that the reform has significantly improved the financial revenue and expenditure of the pilot counties,but the direct effects of reform on economic growth of pilot counties has not passed the significant test. To sum up,the results of the three evaluation methods show that the impact of the financial system reform on the county economic growth in Shanxi province is not significant,and the system design of this reform needs to be further improved.