异质交易者并存证券市场演化动态研究

A Research of Heterogeneous Traders and Stock Market Evolution Dynamic

笔者基于微分动力系统模型,使用1992年12月31日至2013年12月31日上证数据,研究非理性交易者在股票市场完备情况下的发展轨迹。通过研究发现在股票价格内生且无新进入者的条件下,市场演化系统是一个自治系统;理性交易者的比重将增加,非理性交易者的市场比重将减少;在市场价格外生且理性交易者收益能够获得超额收益等假定下,其财富将逐步递增,但增速递减。

Long-run equilibrium of financial markets evolution with heterogeneous traders is one of the focused issues of neoclassic finance and behavior finance. The paper establishes a differential dynamical system model to describe the evolution dynamics of financial markets with coexisting rational and irrational traders and analyzes the stock market evolution dynamics under a market price exogenous assumption. Furthermore,this paper simulates the evolution trajectory using MATLAB and finally gets the evolution dynamics and the final results of financial markets with heterogeneous traders.