经济增长差异、生命周期假说和“配置之谜”

Growth Differentials,the Life-cycle Hypothesis and the Allocation Puzzle

本文试图在生命周期假说的框架下解释Gourinchas&Jeanne(2013)所提出的"配置之谜",即在发展中国家当中,增长率越高的国家越倾向于输出资本,而不是像经典理论所预测的那样,吸收资本。在两期世代交叠模型的转移路径上,封闭条件下增长率越高的国家拥有更高的过度资本供给,因而,增长率越高的国家的本国利率水平越低。这样,在开放条件下,资本将从增长更快的国家流出。但这一关系会受到金融发展程度以及贸易伙伴国的增长率的影响,这可以解释为什么在发达国家中不存在配置之谜。实证结果表明,在控制住贸易伙伴国的加权增长率后,理论模型的结论不仅在包含发达国家和发展中国家的全样本中成立,而且在发达国家的子样本中也成立。

We propose an explanation for the allocation puzzle based on the life-cycle hypothesis. In 2 - period overlapping generation model, ceteris paribus, a country with a higher growth rate registers larger excessive capital supply in autarky. Consequently, interest rates are lower in faster-growing countries. In an open world economy, capital then flows from faster- growing countries to countries growing more slowly. However, the strength of finance and the composition of trading partners can alter this relationship. Our empirical results find that this relationship not only holds at the global level, but also among developed countries when the average growth rates of their corresponding trading partners are controlled.