结构性财政调控与新常态下财政工具选择

Structural Fiscal Policy Regulation and Fiscal Tools Choice in the New Normal

本文综合考虑李嘉图和非李嘉图两类居民个体行为,构建新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型,形成了一个较为系统的结构性财政工具经济效应研究框架。研究发现,不同财政工具的宏观经济效应存在显著差异,政府在进行财政宏观调控时应区别对待、审慎选取。模拟冲击结果表明减税效应相对优于支出扩张效应。在当前经济增速放缓、财政支出为主的刺激政策渐显乏力之际,政府应转变以往财政政策调控思路,逐步由大规模政府支出刺激政策向结构性减税政策调整。本文认为,应深入推行政府和社会资本合作(PPP)模式,支出重点向社保、医疗、养老及公共服务倾斜,促进政府逐步向服务型政府过渡;税收政策应主要以对消费结构性减税为主,以有效促进需求结构向消费驱动转型。

Considering two kinds of individual behaviors about the Ricardian and non-Ricardian residents, the paper builds a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to form a more systematic study framework about structural financial tools. The study finds that the macroeeonomie effects of different financial instruments are significantly distinct. The tools should be evaluated differently and selected carefully while implementing financial macro-control. Also, simulation results show that the impact of tax-cutting is relatively better than expenditure expansion. The government should change the way of usual fiscal macro-control and gradually adjust from massive spending policy to structural tax-cutting policy on the occasion that the economy is slowing down, along with the expenditure-based stimulus policies working weakly. This paper argues that the government should further carry out the mode of public-private partnership, and spending priorities should be inclined to social security, health care, pension and public service as well, gradually promoting a more service-oriented government operating style; tax policy should be based primarily on consumption tax- cutting to effectively transform the demand structure of economy to a consumer-driven.