中国对外移民的区位选择及其影响因素——基于修正零值国际移民引力模型的分析

The Location Choice of Chinese Emigrants and Its Influencing Factors:Empirical Study Based on Revising Zero Migration Grarity Model

利用联合国经济和社会事务部国际移民统计数据库中1990-2013年中国对143个国家和地区的移民存量数据,在修正移民零值基础上,采用国际移民引力模型考察了中国对外移民的区位分布及其影响因素。研究结果表明:中国对外移民主要分布在距离较近和收入较高的国家或地区;影响中国对外移民的因素有移民输入国经济发展水平、经济规模、人口规模、制度质量以及距离;移民输入国资源丰富程度和老龄化程度对中国移民没有显著影响。本文的研究结论意味着保持中国经济持续健康发展、提高国民收入水平、继续深化改革提高制度质量对减少人才流失具有重要意义。

In order to investigate the location distribution of Chinese emigrants,the paper estimated the gravity model using the emigration data of China in 1990-2013 from UN,the results show that：Chinese emigrants distribution has two characteristics： one is that Chinese emigrants inclined towards the countries closing China; the other is Chinese emigrants tend to the countries whose wage is higher. Chinese emigrants have the motivations to improve income and to seek job opportunity. The distance factor and the population size of the destination all have negative effect on Chinese emigrants. The resource richness of destination has no significant effect on Chinese foreign immigrants,and the institutional quality has significant positive influence. The conclusion of this article have two means： the first is that to keep the healthy development of the economic and to improve the level of national income will enhance the attraction for the talent-capital and wealth. The second is that to deepen reform and improve the institutional quality will also reduce emigrants of technician and private entrepreneurs.