货币政策与我国能源价格波动——基于货币市场与产品市场均衡的分析

Monetary Policy and Energy Prices Fluctuation in China——An Analysis based on the Equilibrium of Monetary Market and Product Market

在建立能源品市场、非能源品市场以及货币市场均衡理论模型的基础上,本文以2000年1月至2015年10月的数据为样本,实证分析了我国货币政策对国内能源价格波动的冲击作用。结果显示:对我国能源价格波动影响最大的是广义货币供给量,其次是能源产量、政府财政支出、汇率以及国外能源供给因素。因此,央行在对货币总量进行调控时应坚持稳健的货币政策,关注包括能源价格在内的总体物价水平,对能源价格上涨的货币条件进行控制。

Based on the theoretical model of equilibrium of the energy market, non-energy market and the money mar- ket, this paper empirically analyzed the impact of monetary policy on the fluctuations of domestic energy prices by taking the monthly data from January 2000 to October 2015 as a sample. The results showed： the greatest impact of fluctuations in domestic energy prices is the broad money supply, followed by energy production, government spending, exchange rate and foreign energy supply. Therefore, the central bank should adhere to prudent monetary policy when regulates the mo- netary aggregates, and focus on general price level including energy prices, so as to control the monetary conditions of the rising of energy prices.