基于SpSVAR模型的区域产业结构与大气污染互动研究

Research on the Interactive Relationships between Regional Industrial Structure and Air Pollution based on SpSVAR Model

基于空间面板结构向量自回归模型,本文分析了环渤海经济圈产业结构、大气污染以及经济增长之间的互动关系,发现大气污染推动了本省以及邻近省份的经济增长,而产业结构高级化对其经济增长未起到显著促进作用;经济增长、大气污染会推动本省以及邻近省份的产业结构高级化;无论是短期还是长期,经济增长是加剧大气污染的重要因素;从长期来看,产业结构高级化能促进本省和邻近省份的大气污染减排,但在短期仍会加剧其大气污染;经济增长、大气污染存在显著的溢出效应,产业结构高级化表现为"负效应"。

Based on the spatial panel structure vector auto regression model, this paper studies the interactive relation- ships among industrial structure, air pollution and economic growth in Bohai Economic Rim. Results show that air pollu- tion drives the economic growth of own and neighboring provinces, while industrial structure upgrading doesn＇t promote e- conomic growth obviously; economic growth and air pollution promote the industrial structure upgrading in own and neigh- boring provinces ; whether in the short term or in the long term, economic growth is an important factor that aggravates air pollution significantly. In the long term, industrial structure upgrading restrains the emissions of own and neighboring provinces, while aggravates it in the short term; there exist significant spillover effects between economic growth and air pollution, but industrial structure upgrading performs negative effects.