强制配售可再生能源政策与“绿色悖论”

The Policy of Mandatory Sale Renewable Energy and “Green Paradox”

本文以强制配售可再生能源政策为对象,研究政策预期对化石能源开采量的影响,发现政策预期对化石能源市场的驱动作用与政策实施力度及持续时间有关。基于强制配售政策推动能源价格上涨这一假设,本文还发现政策的预期效应大于"绿色悖论"所产生的效应,即强制配售政策并非一定产生"绿色悖论"。具体而言,提高强制配售比例和提前实施强制配售政策都会促使高价能源预期更强更快地影响当前能源价格,导致目前能源价格上涨,进而降低当前化石能源消费,减慢温室气体排放,减缓全球变暖。

Taking mandatory renewable energy policy for the object, this paper studies the influence of policy effect on the exploitation of fossil energy. The results show that the policy is expected to drive the market of fossil energy, Based on the assumption of mandatory placement policies promoting energy prices, the paper finds the effect of policy is expected to draw more than the effect of the ＂Green Paradox＂, that is mandatory sale policies do not necessarily produce ＂Green Paradox＂. Specifically, increasing the proportion of mandatory placement and early implementation of mandatory place- ment policies will promote higher energy prices, leading to higher energy prices and lower energy consumption, which will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and slow global warming.