商品住宅价格与GDP互动效应实证研究

An Empirical Study of Interactive Effect between Commercial Housing Price and GDP

本文引入一般回归和ARMA组合模型以及矢量自回归模型,对商品住宅价格与GDP的互动关系进行实证检验。依据理论逻辑,商品住宅价格从消费、投资和出口三个方面对GDP产生影响,GDP影响房地产市场需求间接作用于商品住宅价格。实证结果表明:GDP上涨1%,住宅价格会上升0.806717%;住宅价格每上调1%,GDP会增加1.005958%;GDP滞后一、二期对住宅价格影响增强,价格滞后四个时期对GDP作用逐渐减弱;给房产价格一个正向冲击会引发国民经济20多年的震荡。

This article introduced the general regression, ARMA combined model and VAR model for conducting empir- ical test on the interactive relationship between commercial housing price and GDP. According to theoretical logic, com- mercial housing price has an impact on GDP from three aspects of consumption, investment and export, while GDP influ- encing the real estate market demands has an indirect impact on commercial housing price. The empirical results show that when GDP increases 1 percent, commercial housing price will rise 0. 806717 percent; commercial housing price adds 1%, GDP will grow 1. 005958% ; lagged one, two periods of GDP gradually heighten housing price and lagged four periods of housing price gradually weaken GDP ; if commercial housing price is given a shock, it will cause macroeco- nomic changes over 20 years.