甘肃省耕地数量变化与农业经济发展的计量关系研究

Econometric analysis of relationship between change of cultivated land quantity and agricultural economic development in Gansu Province

采用计量经济分析方法,应用协整理论和误差修正模型等,基于1978-2012年甘肃省数据统计,探讨了耕地数量变化与农业经济发展水平间的动态演进关系。研究结果表明:耕地数量变化与农业经济增长之间存在长期协整关系;耕地数量变化是农业经济发展的单向Granger原因,即农业经济发展是以牺牲耕地数量为代价的;农业经济发展对耕地数量的冲击力度大于耕地数量对于农业经济发展贡献的力度,耕地数量减少在促进农业经济发展上存在过度损失。

In this paper,based on statistical data in Gansu Province from 1978 to 2012,the method of co- intergration analysis,error correction model,and so on,were applied to discuss the dynamic evolution relationship between change of cultivated land quantity and agricultural economic development level. The results show that there existed a long- term co- integration relationship between the number of changes in farmland and agricultural growth; cultivated land quantity was a unilateral Granger cause of economic development,that was to say,the agricultural economic development was at the expense of cultivated land quantity; agricultural economic development efforts on the impact of cultivated land were greater than efforts contribution of cultivated land quantity for agricultural economic development,and cultivated land reducing was the excessive loss for promoting agricultural economic development.