沙拐枣属(Calligonum L.)植物在中国的潜在分布区预测

Potential distribution prediction of Calligonum L. in China

应用最大熵算法模型(Max Ent)和地理信息系统(Arc GIS)软件,结合塔里木沙拐枣(Calligonum roborovskii A.Los.)、库尔勒沙拐枣(Calligonum kuerlese Z.M.Mao)、英吉沙沙拐枣(Calligonum yingisaricum Z.M.Mao)、若羌沙拐枣(Calligonum ruoqiangense Liou f.)等四种沙拐枣的现有地理分布记录和19个生物气候变量,预测它们在中国的潜在分布区,并分析其主导气候因子。结果显示:1)塔里木沙拐枣的潜在适生区集中在塔里木盆地及甘肃、内蒙和青海部分地区;若羌沙拐枣的潜在适生区集中在若羌、且末、吐鲁番等较干旱地区;库尔勒沙拐枣的潜在适生区集中在北疆的克拉玛依,东疆的吐鲁番和哈密地区,南疆的库尔勒、喀什、和田等地区;英吉沙沙拐枣的潜在适生区集中在北疆的精河、东疆的吐鲁番、南疆的喀什等地区。2)Max Ent模型对塔里木沙拐枣、库尔勒沙拐枣、英吉沙沙拐枣、若羌沙拐枣等四种沙拐枣潜在分布区的预测精度都很高,AUC值都大于99.5%。3)影响四种沙拐枣分布概率的主要气候因素是春夏多雨季的降水量,其次是冬季的降雪量及最低温。上述研究结果对于适生区开展四种沙拐枣的野生抚育、种植区划及引种栽培具有重要的指导意义。

The potential distributions of Calligonum roborovskii,C. kuerlese,C. yingisaricum,and C. ruoqiangense were predicted through the distribution model（ Max Ent） and GIS（ Arc GIS 10. 0） combined with existing distribution records of the five species and 19 biological climate variables. The results showed that：（ 1） The potential distribution areas of C. roborovskii were located in Tarim Basin and some regions of Gansu,Inner Mongolia,and Qinghai. The potential distribution areas of C. ruoqiangense were still located in Ruoqiang,Qiemo and Turban regions. But,the potential distribution areas of C. kuerlese were Karamay of northern Xinjiang,Turban and Camul of eastern Xinjiang,and Korla,Kashgar and Hotan of southern Xinjiang. The potential distribution areas of C. jingisaricum were Jinghe of northern Xinjiang,Turban of eastern Xinjiang,Kashgar and Hotan of southern Xinjiang.（ 2） Prediction precision of the potential distribution of C. roborovskii,C. kuerlese,C.yingisaricum and C. ruoqiangense was all higher,for their AUC values were all greater than 99. 5%.（ 3） The main climate factors influencing the distribution probability of C. roborovskii,C. kuerlese,C. yingisaricum and C. ruoqiangense were the rainfall in spring and summer,followed by the snowfall and low temperature in winter.The research results will provide valuable references for the wildlife tending,the plantation regionalization,and the introduction and cultivation of Calligonum L.