基于非竞争型投入产出表的中国碳排放影响因素研究

A Research into the Influencing Factors on China's Carbon Emissions According to Its Non-Competitive Input-Output Tables

探究中国碳排放量持续增长背后的原因对于制定科学合理的碳减排政策至关重要。本文使用非竞争型投入产出数据估算2000~2010年中国碳排放量,基于结构分解模型分析碳排放增长的影响因素。研究结果发现,中国碳排放量年均增长12.6%,其中电力、燃气、水的生产和供应业,石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业与金属产品制造业是碳排放量最大的前三个行业;最终需求规模的扩张是碳排放量增加的最主要驱动因素,生产结构变迁是导致碳排放量增加的第二大因素。努力使碳排放强度下降是抑制碳排放量增加的最重要举措。在研究基础上,有针对性提出减少碳排放量的政策建议。

To explore the reasons behind the increase of carbon emissions in China is essential to the development of scientific and reasonable carbon reduction policies.In this paper,I use the noncompetitive input-output data to estimate the carbon emissions in China from 2000 to 2010,and analyze the influencing factors on the increase of carbon emissions based on structural decomposition analysis.The results demonstrate that during the period under discussion,the average annual percentage increase of carbon emissions in China is 12.6%,and show that the production and supply industry of electricity,gas and water,oil processing and coking industry and mental products manufacturing are the three largest industrial emitters of carbon dioxide The expansion of the scale of final demand is the main driving force of carbon emissions,followed by the changes of production structure.The decrease in the intensity of carbon emissions is the key measure to restrain the increase of carbon emissions.This paper puts forward policy recommendations for reducing industrial carbon emissions according to these findings.