判断与决策中的投射偏差

The projection bias in judgment and decision-making

投射偏差是指个体常常会高估未来偏好与当前偏好的一致性,从而把当前偏好投射到未来的心理倾向性。本文从情感–认知加工、时间修正和心理模拟等视角对投射偏差的心理机制进行了解释,并概括出投射偏差的内源性(含内脏感觉、情绪状态和需要)和外源性(含事件相关信息、天气状况和选择情境)影响因素,还总结归纳出投射偏差的三种应对策略,最后指出了投射偏差在未来研究的方向。

Projection bias is one of the cognitive biases that individuals are prone to project their current preference to future preference prediction and to exaggerate the degree to which their future preference will resemble their current one. Many previous studies have observed and demonstrated this kind of phenomenon in different judgment and decision-making situations. Psychological mechanisms of the projection bias consist in affect-cognition processing, temporal correction, and mental simulation. The factors influencing the projection bias primarily consist of both endogenous factors（including visceral feeling, emotional state and need） and exogenous factors（including event-related information, weather condition and choosing situation）. In addition, three kinds of coping strategies of projecting bias are summarized. In the end, this review points out several promising research topics that future researchers of the projection bias may probe into.