日食、太阳黑子与地球自转对Ei Nio(La Nia)影响与预测

Impaction and prediction of Ei Nio( La Nia) events by eclipse,sunspot and earth rotate

Ei Nio(La Nia)对全球气候变化产生显著影响并造成严重自然灾害,其形成与发生受多因素复杂影响.对其影响因素与事件发生预测的研究,有助于对其成因机制加深理解,减弱其造成的灾害影响.本文运用经验模态分解法(EMD)与动力力学预测模型等数学方法,对近60年地球自转、日食、太阳黑子等因素与Ei Nio(La Nia)事件相关性进行多尺度分析,探讨日食对Ei Nio(La Nia)热动力诱因,构建日食、太阳黑子、地球自转与Ei Nio(La Nia)事件间相关系数与预测定理(E1-E2),并对未来10年Ei Nio(La Nia)事件进行预测.研究结果表明:日食、太阳黑子、地球自转等现象与Ei Nio、La Nia事件具有密切相关性,是其发生重要影响因素.日食发生对Ei Nio(La Nia)事件具有热动力诱因,太阳黑子峰值年与Ei Nio事件发生有较好关联性,地球自转速率增加,诱发或增强La Nia事件,地球自转速率降低时,诱发或增强Ei Nio事件.通过构建日食、太阳黑子、地球自转与Ei Nio(La Nia)事件间相关系数与预测定理(E1-E2)进行Ei Nio(La Nia)事件的资料验证与预测,准确率达86.05%,得到预测结论:2016、2018、2019、2020、2023年发生Ei Nio事件,2017、2021、2024年发生La Nia事件.

The Ei Nino（ La Nina） events can make significant effect on the global climate change and cause serious natural disaster. Its formation are impacted by many complicate factors.There are help to understand its formation mechanism and reduce its disaster harm by study these impact factors of Ei Nino（ La Nina）events. We take the multi-time scales analyze for the earth rotate,sunspot,eclipse and Ei Nino（ La Nina） events by the Empirical Mode Decomposition（ EMD） and the dynamic mechanics prediction model. We are analyze the thermal dynamic inducement between the Ei Nino（ La Nina） events and the eclipse. We construct the correlation coefficient and the prediction theorem（ E1- E2） between the earth rotate,sunspot,eclipse and Ei Nino（ La Nina） events to predict the Ei Nino（ La Nina） events happen time in future ten years. The research results show that： there are closely relative between the eclipse,the sunspot,the earth rotate and the Ei Nino（ La Nina） events. There are thermal power causes between the solar eclipse occurs and Ei Nino（ La Nina） events. The sunspots high peak value year have better correlation with the Ei Nino event.As the earth rotate rate increase,it is to induce or enhance the La Nina event. As the earth rotate rate decrease,it is to induce or enhance the Ei Nino event. We construct the correlation coefficient and the predictive theorem（ E1- E2） for them,and through data to validation and prediction. The results prove that the prediction accuracy rate is 86. 05%. We predict that the Ei Nino will happen in 2016 a,2018a,2019 a,2020a and 2023 a and the La Nina will happen in 2017 a,2021a,2024 a.