应用参照法对标志气体不健全的煤炭自燃预报模型的构建

Construction of Coal Spontaneous Combustion Prediction Model with Imperfect Indicator Gas by Using Reference Method

标志气体不健全情况的存在,会导致原有煤炭自燃预报模型数值校正方法的失效。以阿戛煤矿易自燃且缺乏低、中温阶段标志煤温的九煤层为例,介绍了参照法在构建煤炭自燃预报模型过程中的应用,包括实际分析参数的选择,参数组端点温度与曲线拐点的确定方法,实际曲线的拟合和煤炭自燃预报模型的确定。根据理论与实际分析参数存在的分散性,提出了多模型预报煤温的计算方法,有助于提高煤炭自燃预报的精度。

The existence of imperfect indicator gases will lead to the failure of the numerical correction method of the original coal spontaneous combustion prediction model. This paper,by taking No. 9 coal seam which is liable to spontaneous combustion and lack of the indicator coal temperature at the low and medium temperature stages in Ajia Coal Mine as an example,introduced the application of the reference method in the construction of the coal spontaneous combustion prediction model,including the selection of practical analysis parameter,the determination method of the end point temperature of parameter group and the inflection of curve,the fitting of practical curves and the determination of the coal spontaneous combustion prediction model. Based on dispersion of the theoretical and practical analysis parameters,the paper proposed a calculation method of using multi-model to predict coal temperature,which is helpful to improve the prediction accuracy of coal spontaneous combustion.