煤炭开采对窟野河月径流扰动的模拟研究

Study of Coal Mining Disturbance to Simulated Monthly Runoff Values of Kuye River

为模拟窟野河流域1997年煤炭大规模开采后的径流变化情况,构建了窟野河流域1979—2009年的SWAT模型,采用SUFI-2算法进行参数率定,探讨了煤炭开采对径流的扰动情况。结果表明:煤炭开采对窟野河月径流有重要的扰动作用,其扰动的方式一是改变了流域水循环模式,二是改变了下垫面的坡度及植被覆盖程度;1979—1996年月径流模拟效果一般,1997—2009年月径流模拟效果较差,且2个时期模拟值的不确定性均较大,原因除了煤炭开采的影响外,主要是对农业引水及水土保持拦蓄工程考虑不足、模型存在异参同效现象、降水数据较少。

For the simulation of runoff variability induced by extensive coal mining in the Kuye River basin after 1997, a SWAT model of1979-2009 was established and calibrated by using SUFI-2 algorithm. The disturbance to simulated runoff values by coal mining wasdiscussed. The results indicate that such coal mining produces a vital disturbance on the simulated monthly runoff. Two ways of disturbanceinclude the change of basin-scale hydrologic cycle and the change of underlying surface gradient and vegetation cover degree. The result ofmonthly runoff simulated for the period of 1979-1996 shows modest, while that for the period of 1997-2009 is poor, additionally, theuncertainties of simulated values for both periods are larger. Besides coal mining impact, other major causes for these should be theinsufficient consideration given to hydraulic structures, Swiss cheese effect exists in the models and precipitation data is less.