油田原油操作成本控制与预测方法研究

Control and Prediction Methods of Crude Oil Operating Cost in Oilfield

低成本是石油企业追求的目标,操作成本是油气生产项目的重要组成部分,控制与预测操作成本对成本控制预算管理具有重要意义。结合某油田操作成本的实际情况,选择该油田2013年和2014年的操作成本数据,利用统计学指数分析的有关理论,进行静态和动态两方面的分析评价,找出该油田需要控制成本的项目为动力费、人员费、井下作业费、厂矿管理费、其他直接费、燃料费、维护及修理费、运输费、测井试井费。运用回归分析方法,建立了原油操作成本与原油产量之间的关系,预测2015年的操作成本为27美元/bbl。运用灰色分析方法,建立了灰色原油操作成本预测模型,预测2015年的操作成本为30美元/bbl,2015年实际操作成本为28美元/bbl,两种方法的平均值为28.5美元/bbl,误差很小,在实践中可利用两种方法的平均值作为下一年的操作成本预测值。

Low cost is the goal pursued by oil companies,operating cost is an important part of the oil and gas production projects,and operating cost control and prediction are of great significance on cost control budget management.According to the actual situation of operating cost in a certain oilfield,operating cost data of this oilfield in 2013 and 2014 was selected for static and dynamic analysis based on the theory of statis-tical index analysis.The costs should be controlled on power cost,personnel funds,downhole operation cost,factory management cost,other direct cost,fuel expense,maintenance and repair cost,transportation cost and logging and testing cost.The relationship between crude oil operating cost and crude oil production was known by regression analysis method,and the operating cost in 2015 was predicted as $27/bbl.Grey prediction model of crude oil operating cost was established by grey analytical method,and the operating cost in 2015 was predicted as $30/bbl.Actual operating cost in 2015 was $28/bbl.Average value of the above two methods is$28.5/bbl.It shows little error.In the practice,the average value of two methods can be used as a predictive value of the operating costs in next year.