朝鲜第四次核试验对东亚格局的影响和各国外交战略

The Impact of North Korea's Fourth Nuclear Test on Northeast Asia and Different Diplomatic Strategies of the Related Countries

2016年1月6日,朝鲜宣布第一枚氢弹核试验成功。至此,朝鲜已经进行了4次核试验。(1)2016新年伊始,朝鲜自我宣称的"氢弹"核试验震惊了整个东亚,国际视线再次聚焦"朝核"问题。自2011年底金正日突然去世,距今已经4年多了。金正恩在过去的4年里集党政军大权于一身。抛开朝鲜内部的各种变化,就外交而言,朝鲜变化颇多,推出了许多新举措,其对外政策思路也逐渐明朗化。但是金正恩上台执政后,不顾国际社会的强烈反对,继承"遗训政治"和"先军政治",一意孤行地继续推进朝鲜核武计划,两次核试验严重挑战国际社会核不扩散机制,同时朝鲜还坚持核与经济并进的战略。探寻朝鲜的这种战略目的,本文则是通过浅谈其原因和分析目前的东北亚国际格局为出发点的。众所周知,朝鲜核试验对朝鲜半岛和周边的和平稳定构成重大威胁。国际社会在强烈谴责朝鲜的同时,对中国的对朝政策提出了诸多质疑。东亚和平面临新的挑战,各国外交战略出现新的调整在所难免。单纯的南北韩关系发展为中美两大阵营的对立趋势,以美国为主的同盟战略逐渐施压中国形成中美关系的僵局。自习近平执政以来,一直保持良好的韩中关系也受到巨大挑战和损害。李明博政府时期"天安号事件"发生后的中韩关系会否重演?责任到底在哪一方?中美对立的东亚格局如何发展是每个学者最关心的课题。"萨德"反导系统的部署对谁有利?对谁伤害最大?东北亚格局的走势对域内各国会有怎样的影响?朝核问题如何解决?这些问题是正在进行当中的,需要继续观察分析的东北亚核心议题。

On 6 January,2016,North Korea announced its success of the first hydrogen bomb testing. So far, it has conducted nuclear test four times. Now, the global attention has been drawn to North Korea's nuclear issue again. Since the sudden death of Kim Jong Il at the end of 2011,Kim Jong-un has grown the top authority leader of their party and military in North Korea afterwards. Meanwhile,regardless of the opposition of the international community,he continues to push forward the nuclear weapon developing program. The twice nuclear tests were contrary to the international Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Besides,he also pursues a strategy to expand the nuclear weapon and economic development at the same time. The North Korean nuclear test has become a serious threat to the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula and the Northeast Asia. The international community not only has condemned the North Korea for the nuclear issue,but also become suspicious about China's strategy on North Korea. Since peace in Northeast Asia has entered a period of chaotic challenges,in accordance,each country has adjusted the diplomatic strategy. Therefore,internal opposition relations of the two Koreas have been replaced by the opposition of the two groups of Chinese central group and the United States central group.