数值预报产品在邢台市温度预报中的检验与分析

Test and Analysis of NWP Products in Temperature Forecast in Xingtai City

利用邢台市逐日最高气温和最低气温实况资料与T639模式、最优预报的数值预报产品进行比较分析，结果发现：T639预报准确率整体较最优预报的高，且在Td预报方面要明显好于Tg的预报，同时，预报的时段越近，预报的准确率越高。而模式温度与实况温度预报差距较大的原因主要有：冷暖空气的强度及冷暖空气入侵时间、天空状况、降水开始及降水结束的时间、地面风场。

AbstractThe factual information of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in Xingtai city were compared with the NWP products such as T639 model and the optimal prediction .The results showed that ： the forecast accuracy rates of T639 was higher than the optimal prediction on the whole and the Td forecast was better than the Tg , and the closer to the forecast period ,the higher the forecast accuracy rates. The main reasons of the diference between model temperature and factual temperature were the intensity and intrusion time of cold air as well as warm air, weather condition, the start and end time of precipitation and surface wind