基于SIHR_1R_2的突发事件谣言传播研究

Research on Rumor Spreading in Emergency Based on SIHR_1R_2 Model

[目的/意义]突发事件会吸引媒体大量报道和人们的广泛关注,导致事件相关的谣言迅速大范围传播,并给人们的生活带来严重影响,为刻画突发事件谣言快速传播的状态,研究影响谣言传播的关键因素,以便采取措施来控制谣言的传播。[方法/过程]分析了突发事件谣言传播的特点,完善了突发事件谣言传播的规则,引入变化的遗忘与记忆函数,在经典传染病模型的基础上,构建了突发事件谣言传播的SIHR1R2模型,并得到模型的交互马尔科夫(IMC)平均场方程。最后,应用Monte-Carlo仿真方法对谣言传播过程进行仿真,分析了媒体以及遗忘记忆机制等因素对谣言传播的影响。[结果/结论]仿真结果与真实数据相比,能够有效的描述谣言传播过程,并得到媒体的报道降低了谣言传播门槛等结论,为制定谣言控制策略提供了理论基础。

[Purpose / Significance] Emergency will attract massive media coverage and extensive attention from the public,thus leads to quick widespread of rumors related to emergencies and causes serious impact on people＇s lives. This paper tries to characterize the state of rapid rumor spreading in emergency and study the key factors affecting rumor spreading in order to improve the control of the spread of rumors. [Method / Process] The emergency rumors spreading characteristics were analyzed firstly. Then based on the classical epidemic model,a newemergency rumor spreading model,SIHR1R2 model,was constructed by considering the forgetting and remembering function and improving the emergency rumors spreading rules. The interaction Markov chains（ IMC） mean-field equations based on the SIHR1R2 model were derived to describe the dynamic spreading process. Finally,Monte- Carlo simulation method was used to simulate the process of propagation of rumors and to analyze the influence of media and forgetting memories mechanism on rumor spreading. [Result /Conclusion] Compared with the real data,simulation results testify the model of its ability in describing the process of rumor spreading properly. The paper draws the conclusion that media coverage may lower the threshold of rumor spreading,and the research provides a theoretical basis for the rumor control policy formulation.