西部大开发以来甘肃省生态脆弱度变化趋势研究

Research of Gansu Province Ecological Fragility Trend since Beginning of the Western Development

甘肃生态是国家生态战略的重要组成部分。文章选择甘肃省作为研究区域,在对其生态脆弱性现状和影响因素分析的基础上,从成因—结果表现两个方面选取20个指标构建评价指标体系,基于2000~2013年自然和经济社会数据,采用层次分析法赋权和综合指数法来实现对甘肃生态脆弱性的综合评价并对西部大开发以来生态脆弱度变化趋势进行分析。结果表明：甘肃省生态脆弱度较高,整体呈逐年上升趋势,是社会、环境和经济等因素综合驱动的结果。不同时期脆弱度等级有所变化,但幅度不大,总体处于强、中度脆弱状态。最后运用灰色关联模型,发现生态脆弱度与贫困人数、荒漠化程度、水土流失治理面积、垦殖率等高度相关。

Gansu ecology is an important part of the national ecological strategy. This article selected Gansu Province as the study area, based on the analysis of present situation and the driving factors of the ecological fragility, from two aspects cause and the result selected 20 indicators to construct the evaluation index system. Then the paper uses analytic hierarchy process（AHP） to empower and comprehensive index method to implement the comprehensive evaluation of ecological fragility in Gansu. Analyzing the fragile degree change trend since the beginning of western development based on the natural and social and economic data in 2000-2013. The results show that the Gansu Province ecological fragile degree is higher, the overall trend is upward year by year. It is the result of social, environmental and economic factors combined result. Vulnerability grades vary in different periods, but modest, overall in strong, moderate fragile state. Finally, using correlation analysis method, the paper derived ecological vulnerability is highly correlated with the number of poverty, desertification, soil erosion control area, and reclamation rate.