中国旅游业经济周期性波动研究

On Tourism Cyclical Fluctuation in China

本文在梳理国内外旅游经济增长周期研究的基础上,运用增长率方法对入世以来中国旅游总收入、中国国内旅游收入以及中国入境旅游收入时间序列进行一阶差分处理并在证明该一阶差分序列单根平稳的基础上运用频谱分析的方法测度了中国旅游经济、中国国内旅游经济和中国入境旅游经济增长的周期性特征。中国旅游经济增长周期波动与宏观经济波动轨迹基本一致,且随着时间的推移,中国三大旅游经济的增长周期长度趋长,增长幅度减缓。对比来说,三大旅游经济体系中,国内旅游经济对抗外界冲击的能力最强,国际旅游经济对抗外界冲击的能力最弱,我国宏观旅游经济增长相对于前两种旅游经济在增长稳定性方面处于居中位置。

On the basis of combing domestic and overseas study of tourism economic cyclical fluctuation,we use growth rate method to do a first-order difference transformation for the total tourism income,domestic and inbound tourism income since china ＇s entering WTO. And then,after first-order difference transformation is proved to be smooth,the spectrum analysis is applied to analyze the cyclical characteristics of Chinese tourism economy,Chinese domestic tourism economy and inbound tourism economy. Tourism cyclical fluctuation corresponds to macroeconomic cyclical fluctuation,and as time goes on,the length of growth cycle of the three tourism economy in China gets longer and growth rate decreases gradually. By comparison,domestic tourism economy owns the strongest ability against external shocks,while the inbound tourism economy is the weakest one among the three travel economies.