流动性、一般均衡与金融稳定的“不可能三角”

Liquidity,General Equilibrium and “Impossible Trinity” in Financial Stability

全球金融危机以来完善金融稳定制度体系的一个革命性思考是引入宏观审慎管理框架。本文在梳理国内外相关文献和研究进展基础上,对中央银行传统目标及其政策手段局限性进行了深刻反思,指明了金融稳定重回中央银行目标菜单后,中央银行协调其货币政策与宏观审慎的逻辑框架,以及有效政策工具的变革方向。本文研究认为:第一,以逆周期调节和防范系统性风险为目标的宏观审慎管理必须依托流动性管理方能收到实效。第二,金融业经营模式和信息技术发展使流动性管理面临一般均衡要求,中央银行目标应该从狭义价格—即通货膨胀转向广义价格—即更广泛的金融资产价格体系。第三,金融风险决定了危机是一个概率事件,危机救助决定了道德风险是必然事件,金融系统稳定、金融创新和零道德风险是金融稳定的新"不可能三角"。第四,高效率的流动性管理是在事前有效防范系统性风险、在事后有效救助金融崩溃的根本手段,通过流动性对广义价格体系实施有效管理,最终可以同时实现宏观经济调控和宏观审慎管理双重目标。第五,在新业态等金融创新冲击下,基于支付体系的实时流动性管理技术,将逐步取代基于事后统计体系的传统管理手段。

Since the global financial crisis in 2008,a renovation and reform of financial stability regime is the introduction of Macro- Prudential Management Framework. After reviewing relevant academic literatures and examining the limitations of central bank＇s traditional objectives and policy instruments,the paper demonstrates the framework that the central bank can use to coordinates the monetary policy and Macro- Prudential regulatory policy. The main conclusions are as follows： First,Macro- prudential regulatory policies,aiming at counter-cyclical regulation and preventing systemic financial risks,can be effectively implemented only if they are supporting by liquidity management. Second,development of financial industry and information technology make the liquidity management face the general equilibrium requirements,so that the central bank should not only care about the inflation target,but also concerned about the flexible financial asset prices system. Third,financial risk determines that the crisis is a probability event,and the financial rescue determines the moral hazard is an inevitable event. In that sense,the financial system stability,financial innovation and zero moral hazard is the new＂impossible trinity＂in the financial system. Fourth,highly efficient liquidity management is one of the pivotal instruments that can effectively identify systemic financial risk beforehand while preventing SIFIs collapses afterwards. Based on the management of liquidity,the central bank can stabilize the financial asset price system,can effectively manage the macro economy,and achieve the goal of prudent financial management.Fifth,under the influence of financial innovating,real time liquidity payment system will act as financial regulation information provider,taking place of traditional ex post facto statistical system.