煤与瓦斯突出危险性模糊综合评价方法研究

Study on Coal and Gas Outburst Risk Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

为提高煤与瓦斯突出防治和安全监管监察工作的针对性及效能,便于实施分级监管,在前人工作的基础上,综合应用煤与瓦斯突出影响因素的研究成果,将突出历史作为新的一级评价指标纳入评价指标体系,基于模糊数学理论,构建了煤与瓦斯突出危险性模糊综合评价模型。通过对淮北海孜矿、开滦马家沟矿等4个试验矿井突出危险性的综合评价,结果表明,突出预测结果与实际情况相符。由于该评价指标体系既包括影响煤与瓦斯突出潜在可能性的因素,也包括决定突出发生后危害严重程度的因素,因此评价方法更合理,评价结果可靠。

Coal and gas outburst is a disaster to threaten to coal mine safety production seriously. To improve the pertinence and effectiveness of coal and gas outburst＇s prevention and regulation supervisory work,and to facilitate the implementation of classification regulation,a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of coal and gas outburst danger is constructed,on the basis of previous work and the research achievements of coal and gas outburst factors. In this model,gas outburst history is regarded as a new first class evaluation index. This model is applied for gas outburst risk comprehensive evaluation of four test coal mines such as Haizi Mine,Majiagou Mine.The results show that the forecast result accords with the actual situation. As the evaluation index system includes both the influencing factors of coal and gas outburst potential and factors decided by outburst hazard after the occurrence of serious degree,so the evaluation method is more reasonable,and the evaluation result is reliable.